Developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland

What is FINSKEN?

FINSKEN is a recently completed project (1999-2002) in the Finnish Global Change Research Programme (FIGARE), which was jointly funded by the Academy of Finland (67%) and the Ministry of Transport and Communications (33%). The project was co-ordinated at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), and comprised six research groups working in four institutes: SYKE, the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR).

FINSKEN developed up-to-date projections of changes in environmental and related factors in Finland during the 21st century and beyond. Given the uncertainties associated with estimates of future human behaviour, it is impossible to predict the future with any confidence; rather it is customary to construct "scenarios", which describe plausible future conditions.

To ensure consistency, all FINSKEN scenarios are based on the same set of global scenarios of socio-economic and technological development as described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). With these socio-economic assumptions it is possible to calculate a range of plausible scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere. Similarly, for a given emissions scenario, it is possible to estimate the concentrations of gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, their effects on the radiation balance of the Earth, and their effect on the climate and, subsequently, on sea level. Since projections are uncertain at each link of the chain, sets of scenarios were developed that represent the range of uncertainty at each level.

The scenarios developed by the different FINSKEN research groups include:

• Socio-economic and technological scenarios
• Atmospheric composition scenarios
• Acid deposition scenarios
• Climate scenarios
• Sea-level scenarios

Special issue of Boreal Environment Research

The results of FINSKEN have been published in a special issue of Boreal Environment Research in May 2004(Vol. 9, No. 2).

FINSKEN results online

Extensive FINSKEN scenario materials are available online at the FINSKEN Scenario Gateway.

Contact persons

Timothy Carter (project co-ordinator)
Stefan Fronzek (web pages)
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland
Telephone: Tel: +358 20 610 123
E-mail: firstname.lastname@ymparisto.fi (firstname of T. Carter: tim)